Selecting Pension Funds

Question: Does Dick Fabian's 'Telephone Switch' share-picking, trend-analysis method work for UK pension funds?

To find out, I am applying the Fabian method to L&G, Norwich Union, and Aviva fund prices retrieved from:

Legal & General fund prices

Norwich Union fund prices

Aviva S6 fund prices

Here are the current analysis and recommendations:

Legal & General Buy/Sell recommendations

Norwich Union Buy/Sell recommendations

Aviva S6 Buy/Sell recommendations

Stocks Buy/Sell recommendations

Note: For each fund, the recommendations only become valid when the system has acquired 39 weeks of price data.

How do you use the method in the context of UK pension funds?

  1. If the method says 'Buy', place all of your assets in the pension scheme into the fund that has the highest percentage growth number compared to the 39-week moving average.
  2. If the method says 'Sell', sell all of your assets in the pension scheme's fund in which they are currently invested and put them into the pension scheme's Cash fund. Do not put them into a bond or gilt fund, regardless of whether the recommender issues a 'Buy' on the scheme's bond or gilt funds.

Technology

Python + Perl + Redis key-value store (NoSQL)

Python retrieves the price data from each company's price page and BeautifulSoup parses for relevant price data. It checks for typos and missing data before accepting that valid prices have been grabbed for any existing funds, highlighting any consistency issues.

The prices are appended to a Redis database as keyed lists of prices for each fund.

A Perl script averages the prices averaged over 39 weeks and posts them to the webpages linked to above.

Background

I wrote this application to test the 'Telephone Switch Method' against UK pension scheme funds. Also to develop an understanding of data relations in Redis, multiple Redis databases, and appropriate module code prior to storing Renewable Energy Monitor sensor data in Redis.

Discussion

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pensionfunds.txt · Last modified: 2012/02/04 19:19 by lee
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